Brand Shuffling in the U.S. auto market: You can't tell the players without a scorecard.

Although I have become a rather serious proponent of public transportation over the years, especially for urban environments, I have been and remain an enthusiastic car buff. There was a time when I looked forward each month to the arrival of "Car & Driver" and "Automobile" magazines, and I would sometimes read them cover to cover in one sitting. To learn more about the industry, I even worked for a brief time in my twenties as a salesman in a Chrysler-Dodge-Subaru dealership (can you say "fundamental type mismatch"?).

And while I no longer follow the industry as I did in those years, I retain a strong interest in the doings of the industry: new models, corporate mergers and partnerships, the latest technological advances, personalities and market forces that shape the industry, etc.

There has been much to digest over the last several months, to say the least.

The landscape that appears likely to emerge from the current economic tsunami will bear little resemblence to the status quo. The entire automotive order is being reshuffled, and the big players in the American automotive market will take on an ever more international flavor.

This is ultimately a good thing - America's "Big 3" long ago surrendered their prior leadership roles in automotive innovation to their German, Japanese and Korean counterparts. Can the Chinese and Indians, both with ambitious plans to crack the U.S. auto market, be far behind?

When I was a child the automotive powers of the American marketplace looked like this:

• General Motors



• Ford



• Chrysler

Next was a large gap, and then:

• Volkswagen



• Toyota



• Honda



• Nissan

plus several other niche brands (Mercedes, BMW, Saab, Volvo, etc.)

Beginning in the 1980s and continuing to the present day, the Japanese manufacturers developed reputations for building reliable, efficient cars, and moved their vehicles up the ladder of sophistication and luxury to become full-line brands, offering vehicles from small to large, from cars to trucks, minivans and SUVs, from thrifty to luxurious. The Germans continued to supply high-end cars, moving up to the luxurious end of the spectrum once occupied by Cadillac, Lincoln, and Buick. Currently, the Koreans (Hyundai, Kia) are following the path of their Japanese predecessors, expanding their overall product portfolio while moving away from cheap econoboxes towards near-luxury sedans, minivans, and SUVs.

The one constant has been a persistant loss of market share by Detroit's Big 3 to the "newcomers" (remember when they were almost derisively referred to as "imports"?). Over time, the Japanese, German and now Korean manufacturers even added manufacturing plants here in the U.S.A. employing tens of thousands of American workers.

I created the the graphic above to represent what the landscape may look like once the dust of the current crisis settles. Highlights include:

• Chrysler as a homeless vagabond, being passed from one foreign corporate master (Daimler-Benz, 1998-2007) to another (Fiat), after a brief period of independence (2007-2009). Hmm... Sounds like Latvia between the wars....




• GM and Ford shedding Asian and European subsidiaries in a rush to streamline. Ford got a head start when it flirted with bankruptcy a few years ago, cutting its close ties to Kia, Jaguar and Land Rover, and currently seeking to divest itself of Mazda and Volvo. GM, meanwhile, appears to be the largest victim of the economic slowdown, and will emerge a much smaller company as it struggles to survive. It has shuttered Oldsmobile and Pontiac for good and now seeks to sell off Saturn, Opel/Vauxhall (GM Europe), Hummer, and Saab.




• Fiat may return to the U.S. market and emerge as one of the world's largest automakers if it can pull off the acquisitions of Chrysler and Opel/Vauxhall.




• Volkswagen continues to absorb its purchase of U.K. super-lux brand Bentley while it works on a merger with Porsche.




• Similarly, BMW has expanded its U.S. presence by picking up the Rolls-Royce and Mini (Cooper) brands.




• Meanwhile, the availability of the Saturn brand and distribution channel is attracting lots of attention from investor groups and foreign automakers, including Chinese and Indian companies looking for access to the U.S. marketplace. Saturn's 384 dealerships offer that access on a turn-key basis. Investor groups hoping to facilitate that access are lining up plans to buy the chain as we speak.




• Meanwhile, look for aggressive marketing from titans Toyota, Honda, Nissan-Renault, Hyundai-Kia (as well as smaller players like Subaru and India's Tata, which owns Jaguar and Land Rover) to pick up market share as the industry adjusts to the seismic shifts noted above.

One thing is sure: more of the old, familiar auto brands will disappear, and be replaced by new brands with decidedly foreign pedigrees.